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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.