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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."